May 22, 2025 — Forecasters within NOAA’s National Weather Service predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1 and runs through November 30. NOAA predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season in the Atlantic basin this year.
~ NOAA.gov
August 20-24, 2025
Hurricane Erin did not make landfall, but she managed to close beaches for swimming along the whole eastern seaboard. Be prepared for the next to come our way.
The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
Improved hurricane analysis and forecasts in store for 2025
NOAA will improve its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season including:
- NOAA’s model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, will undergo an upgrade that is expected to result in another 5% improvement of tracking and intensity forecasts that will help forecasters provide more accurate watches and warnings.
Last spring Suffolk Times article, reporter Steve Wick spoke to Dan Goodwin, Southold Town’s highway superintendent, and Southold Supervisor Al Krupski. They both reinforced that being prepared is the most important planning one can do for their household.
Mr. Goodwin said that when he speaks to residents and civic groups, he stresses the need to be prepared for coming storms. “Everyone family that lives here has a unique and personal set of circumstances and needs,” he said. “It could be that they need certain medications or care, live in a flood-prone area or heavily wooded area. Some of the residents are new to the area and don’t understand what effects a large powerful storm could do to their property or the infrastructure they rely on.
“Hurricane season starts June 1 and I hope that people start thinking about these types of storms and assessing their own factors and properties at that point,” he added. “The time to do it is definitely not going to be when we have a storm closing in on the area.”
Southold Supervisor Al Krupski added, “Heavy winds bring down trees, wires and poles, blocking roads,” he said. “Flooding is made worse by sea level rise, which blocks roads. We can prepare by being ready, having fuel in your car, food in your house, and a reliable water source. If your electricity goes off for a few days, accept that you can survive without it on a temporary basis.
“If you have family members with special medical needs, make your preparations today for moving to an emergency facility,” he said. “Help your community members if you can do so safely. Make sure that you are in a safe place during a storm so you do not have to put fire and police personnel at risk during the storm. Stay off the road to let the crews safely clear debris.”
He said climate change has made the threat of severe storms worse. “We need to adjust our behavior to adapt and support efforts to make us more climate resilient”.
Be prepared: Visit hurricanes.gov and follow @NWS and @NHC Atlantic on X.
